But drilling deeper, it is also crucial to determine whether or not an emerging trend is just going to be a short-lived blip, or is it going to be shaping categories for the longer-term.
“While anyone can declare a trend, Mintel’s Beauty & Personal Care (BPC) team has made its business to create trends early on, rigorously validate and track them through its team of global category and consumer insights experts from around the world,” said Jane Henderson, global president of Mintel BPC.
Hitting the right spot on past trends
The Mintel team has been ahead of the curve on many trends in recent years, including highlighting waterless formulations, ethnic products, personalised products and, perhaps the trend that is continuing to have the most impact today, anti-pollution.
“Back in 2012, Mintel identified the anti-pollution trend, in 2015 specifying the growth of this claim for skin and facial products as the future. In the autumn of the following year, Mintel tracked an increase in BPC product launches with anti-pollution claims,” said Henderson.
"Three years after we first identified this trend, in the spring of 2018, the media started to catch onto the anti-pollution beauty phenomenon and bring it to the attention of the mainstream consumer audience.”
Proof that brands have picked up on the importance of the trend can be determined by tapping into Mintel’s Global New Product Database (GNPD), which shows that since 1996 there was a 40% spike in BPC products with anti-pollution claims between the time the team first identified it and February 2018.
The formula behind the trends development
The Mintel team has always worked around the principle of analysing consumer trends within the context of behaviour and core values.
“We then put this into context, so our clients understand what it means to their category in different demographics and amidst global themes,” said Henderson.
“Not every consumer trend we identify is backed by robust data, but more an appreciation of clear insights into the future.”
What lies ahead...
Currently the Mintel team is working on both its shorter-term 2019 trends forecast, which will be published in November, as well as its longer-term forecast to take the beauty industry professionals all the way up to the year 2030.
“Recently we viewed our last 10 year forecasts presented to the industry , we discovered how the sheer evolution of the trends are gathering greater speed, so watch this space for our 2019 trends in November. Some will be disruptive!,” said Henderson.
“And we are also working with our advisory panel on 2030 trends. It is a large undertaking that requires challenging and uncomfortable discussions to reach the right conclusions.”